BDEW Analysis for March 2011:
Development of electricity generation and exchanges
Considerable changes in terms of electricity imports and exports
Berlin, 4 April 2011 - The German Federal Government's moratorium concerning the shutdown of seven nuclear power stations has led to a loss of 7,000 Megawatt generating capacity and an electricity quantity of approximately 120 Gigawatt-hours per day. Since the end of March the Grafenrheinfeld nuclear power station has been in revision, which means that additional 30 to 35 GWh are missing per day. The loss of these electricity quantities entailed a rise in prices in wholesale markets for all products traded. This has been shown by a first analysis carried out by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) for the month of March 2011.
Prices in the futures market in base load for the 2011 quarters and the "base load" forward product for the year 2012 have increased by about 12 percent after the moratorium. According to BDEW, a similar development became apparent in the futures market in peak load products. Prices for CO2 emission allowances also increased by about 10 percent.
Considerable changes occurred in terms of electricity exchanges, BDEW said. An export surplus of approximately 70 to 150 GWh/day occurred during the first half of March, thus representing the usual situation of that time of the year. With the shutdown of nuclear power stations, this situation was reversed. An import surplus of about 50 GWh/day has been recorded since 17 March. Power flows from France and the Czech Republic have doubled while power flows to the Netherlands and Switzerland have decreased by about 50 percent.
During the first 20 days after the moratorium, the electricity quantities lost have thus been compensated for the most part by a rise in the import surplus. In the medium-term, other strategies might take effect, such as the rise in output of existing conventional power stations in Germany. This will depend, among other things, on the merit order applied in Central Europe.
Note: For the analysis of the electricity generation development, the BDEW has taken the following data into consideration: EEX transparency platform; degree of coverage > 90 % (nuclear energy 100%, conventional power stations and large hydro power stations > 90 %, wind and photovoltaic 100 %, biomass, small hydro power and geothermal power stations have not been taken into account), data of transmission system operators on feed-in of wind and photovoltaic power, data of ENTSO-E on cross-border electricity exchanges.
Press release: Development of electricity generation and exchanges (PDF)